BreyerFest Ticket Strategy Pt 2: What Ticket(s) Should I Get?
- Sara Roche
- Feb 22
- 5 min read
Tickets have officially been announced! We don't know when they will go on sale yet but we did get the details and pricing for each ticket. The main options if you want the traditional celebration model and the option of two special runs are VIP ($248), All Access ($98), and Online Traditional Access ($70).
I think I've definitively decided on getting a VIP ticket, so then the question is which, if any, other tickets should I get?
Firstly, do I need/want any of the other special runs besides the Old Timer and Show Jumping Warmblood, which I'm planning to get on a VIP ticket. TBH, nothing else is jumping out as a must have but I do always like to get the surprise just in case. There's a decent chance it will be something I want and even if not it's always fun to see which variation you get. I sort of like the Silver and the Collie and I might FOMO need them once I get there, so those might be a good option 2 to try for along with the Surprise on a regular ticket.
The other thing is that this year Breyer has been hinting at having a lot of surprises mixed in. I love surprises! And variations! And micro-runs! And even not-so-micro runs! They're like in person loot boxes and I'm hooked. Since I conga the Old Timer and SJW I have a strong feeling that I should try to get at least one extra ticket for each of those. Luckily for me most of the rest of the runs are on molds I don't particularly like so even a fabulous micro-run (probably) wouldn't be something I'd be after. Phew!
Then the question becomes, should I get extra in person tickets or try to save a few bucks and get virtual tickets instead? Having the opportunity to pick up the model there, open and inspect it, and possibly work trades or sell duplicates is probably worth the extra cost. But there is also a part of me that thinks it would be fun to keep the Breyerfest excitement going just a little bit longer. Having a surprise package after I get home again would be fun.
We can be pretty much assured that none of the SRs that will be available to virtual tickets, other than the surprise, will be in the leftover line on Sunday. There is no holding out for that and extra ticket(s) will be a must for the OT and SJW and probably the Silver. There could be some of those on the online second chance sale, but if the variations are popular I doubt there will be too many (and you'll need fast fingers if they are on there).
Now it's time for the mathematics portion of the post. Let's say, total hypothetical, that there is a micro-run of 75 pieces within each special run. That is around a 3% chance of pulling the variation, which is also around a 6% chance that you get a variation between your two SRs. If you wanted to increase your odds of getting at least one variation to 50% you'd have to buy 11-12 tickets. Each ticket pull is not an entirely independent 3% chance but it's close enough for these rough odds.
If you buy 20 tickets you're up to 70% chance. Roughly 1 in 30 models is a variation, but even 30 tickets still leaves you a 16% chance of getting all non-variations.
That's a lot of money though. Let's say you go for the cheapest option and buy 30 virtual tickets - that's $2100 in tickets alone. For this analysis I'm going to assume you can sell all your non-variations at cost so that is a wash. So you might have just spent $2100 with a 16% chance of not getting anything. There's a 36% chance you got two rare variations though (and certainly some smaller chance of having even pulled more than two). Is that worth it? Runs of 75 generally are selling in that $1800-$2500 range so there's a pretty good chance you could outright buy the variation you want for $2100 (or at least get very close) instead of spending that on extra chances. On the other hand, 36% chance to get both variations is compelling.
But maybe the whole point is that you don't have $2100 lying around. How do we do with 5 tickets? That's $350 for call it a 25% chance of getting one variation - that certainly feels a lot more comfortable.
But we've already made a BIG assumption here that the run is 75 pieces. What if they do 250 or 750 pieces? That's going to be much cheaper on the secondary market. You might feel silly having spent $2100 on tickets, but also your odds of getting multiple variations just went up significantly.
Let's run the numbers! I'm using the Old Timer and Show Jumping Warmblood as my two picks on every ticket - mostly because those are the two I want, but also they are the largest (non surprise) runs so they will have the "worst" odds if all rarities are equal.
What if the variations are runs of 75:
Odds | Odds | Odds | Virtual | On-Site | ||
# of Tickets | Per One | of Either | of Both | Cost | Cost | Theoretical Value |
1 | 3% | 6% | 0% | $ 70 | $ 98 | $ 2,000 |
5 | 14% | 26% | 2% | $ 350 | $ 490 | $ 2,000 |
8 | 22% | 39% | 5% | $ 560 | $ 784 | $ 2,000 |
10 | 26% | 46% | 7% | $ 700 | $ 980 | $ 2,000 |
15 | 37% | 60% | 13% | $ 1,050 | $ 1,470 | $ 2,000 |
20 | 46% | 70% | 21% | $ 1,400 | $ 1,960 | $ 2,000 |
30 | 60% | 84% | 36% | $ 2,100 | $ 2,940 | $ 2,000 |
Runs of 250:
Odds | Odds | Odds | Virtual | On-Site | ||
# of Tickets | Per One | of Either | of Both | Cost | Cost | Theoretical Value |
1 | 10% | 19% | 1% | $ 70 | $ 98 | $ 800 |
5 | 41% | 65% | 17% | $ 350 | $ 490 | $ 800 |
8 | 57% | 81% | 32% | $ 560 | $ 784 | $ 800 |
10 | 65% | 88% | 42% | $ 700 | $ 980 | $ 800 |
15 | 79% | 96% | 63% | $ 1,050 | $ 1,470 | $ 800 |
20 | 88% | 99% | 77% | $ 1,400 | $ 1,960 | $ 800 |
30 | 96% | 100% | 92% | $ 2,100 | $ 2,940 | $ 800 |
Runs of 750:
Odds | Odds | Odds | Virtual | On-Site | ||
# of Tickets | Per One | of Either | of Both | Cost | Cost | Theoretical Value |
1 | 30% | 51% | 9% | $ 70 | $ 98 | $ 400 |
5 | 83% | 97% | 69% | $ 350 | $ 490 | $ 400 |
8 | 94% | 100% | 89% | $ 560 | $ 784 | $ 400 |
10 | 97% | 100% | 94% | $ 700 | $ 980 | $ 400 |
15 | 100% | 100% | 99% | $ 1,050 | $ 1,470 | $ 400 |
20 | 100% | 100% | 100% | $ 1,400 | $ 1,960 | $ 400 |
30 | 100% | 100% | 100% | $ 2,100 | $ 2,940 | $ 400 |
Where does that leave us? My gut feeling is that they will do something on the more limited side (like 75 pieces) but I personally preferred the year they were all runs of 200. That is still rare enough to be exciting but common enough that your odds are pretty good to get one. So I'm hoping for scenario B and planning for scenario A.
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