Breyerfest Tickets! Some More Analysis

I'm back! Sorry I've been missing - I was traveling for work and busy with life stuff. When building a work out routine they say never miss a Monday - I think that goes for blogging too! Anyway here we are again.

Breyerfest tickets officially went on sale yesterday! If you know you are definitely going now is a great time to get them because the early bird pricing AND VIP tickets will only be available until April 30.

You've seen my previous analysis and I did go ahead with a VIP ticket and I selected Hats Off To You, Let The Good Times Roll, Standing Ovation, and the Best of BF SM set.

This has again left me wondering what, if any, other tickets should I buy? I do want to be "in the game" some more if there are going to be more fun surprises or micro runs and I always like to have at least one Surprise in case it's something I collect.

Given my experience last year I've started to wonder... do online ticket holders get a little bit of preferential treatment when it comes to special run selection? Certainly for the special runs that are virtual only, that has to be the case. AA ticket holders end up getting the "leftovers" which I believe is naturally going to include many more of the in person only options.

Time to run the numbers! There are a total of 26,200 special run models available and VIP, AA, or Virtual tickets guarantee you the opportunity to purchase two special runs which means there is a maximum total ticket number of 13,100.

Let's make an assumption and say they hold back half of the virtual options for virtual ticket holders - that comes out to 8600 models and 4300 online tickets available.

That leaves 8800 tickets for VIP and AA. The VIP option is likely more limited so let's say 25% of those are VIP, or 2200 tickets. So then finally 6600 AA tickets are available.

So what can we figure out from this in terms of special run availability for various ticket types?

If we hold back half of the virtual only models for online tickets, you have a pretty even shot of getting your top two favorites when you submit your preferences.

Special Run	Quantity Available	Percent
Hats Off to You	1250	15%
Let The Good Times Roll	1250	15%
To The Ties That Bind Us	1100	13%
Future Is Bright	1100	13%
Seize the Day Surprise	3900	45%

Now we have the VIP ticket holders. If you get a VIP ticket you pre-purchase and are guaranteed your special run selections. The good news is the preferences so far are pretty evenly split - Amanda's Surveys ran a preferences poll, and this also ties out with the polls I've seen on Facebook - you can check out all her excellent survey results here: https://sites.google.com/view/amanda-breyer-horse-survey-hub/

So let's assume our 2200 VIPs select their models along the lines of these preferences

Special Run	Quantity Selected	Percent
Hats Off to You	792	18%
Let The Good Times Roll	572	13%
Good Times Great Friends	484	11%
To The Ties That Bind Us	484	11%
Future Is Bright	528	12%
YOLO	440	10%
Life's A Journey	264	6%
Get This Party Started	352	8%
Seize the Day Surprise	484	11%

So now here's the real crux - what happens when we subtract the models held for virtual ticket holders and the VIP selections from the total available models to see what is left for AA ticket holders?

Special Run	Quantity Available	Percent
Hats Off to You	458	3%
Let The Good Times Roll	678	5%
Good Times and Great Friends	1816	14%
To The Ties That Bind Us	616	5%
Future Is Bright	572	4%
YOLO	1960	15%
Life's A Journey	1736	13%
Get This Party Started	1948	15%
Seize the Day Surprise	3416	26%

If you were hoping to get one of the models that is available both onsite and virtually, that is not a lot left for AA ticket holders, other than the surprise which is plentiful across all ticket options. It's pretty clear from this why none of the virtual options (other than surprise) were available to wildcard ticket holders last year and it will very likely be the same this year. It also looks like a very good chance that Hats Off to You and Future is Bright will sell out.

So the conclusion I draw from this is that if you really want one of the non-surprise virtual options, particular Hats Off or Future is Bright, but really all four, you should be strongly considering the VIP option and if not, you may be better off buying a virtual ticket even if you plan to attend in person! Depending on what other activities you want to do you could buy a general admission ticket to get in, or if you're someone who buys multiple tickets for the SRs you might get a mix of AA and Virtual.

After doing this analysis I'm leaning that way myself (a mix of both)... it's a bummer to not be able to get all your SRs and open them at Breyerfest, but it does also extend the fun after you get home and saves room in the car, not to mention it's $28 cheaper per ticket.