Monday Markets: Feb 3 2025

Happy February! We made it through the 800 days of January and at least this is a short month.

The biggest buzz in the model horse markets (and, really, all the markets) is the tariffs! A 10% tariff has been imposed on Chinese imports and that includes Breyer models which are manufactued in China. Breyer will get hit with a 10% fee on all their subsequent shipments from overseas. I would expect most if not all of this cost to be passed on to the consumers but the question is how long will it take to filter through? I'm not sure what the rules are for dealers but certainly Breyer can increase the price on their own website and other direct sales as soon as they want to. It's something I'm keeping an eye on for sure. I've been watching Amazon prices and so far they are still down on average since the beginning of the year.

Average Retail Price of Current Breyers on Amazon

I haven't included the new for 2025 models yet because they aren't available on Prime, but once they are I will get them in the mix.

On the secondary market, sales of the first web special of the year Prague are strong. Not surprising to me since he was limited to 600 pieces and a gorgeous glossy color on a popular mold. He was $195 new and the average sales price on eBay in the week since he was released was $297. As of this post there is only one still available (at $300 obo) so there is good demand and not a ton of supply. I'll be following all the new model secondary sales trends as well. The tariffs are also likely to have an effect across the broad economy so I am expecting a general slowdown in model horse world too. There have been an unusually large number of rarities for sale lately which is typically a leading indicator of a slow down. Also anecdotally many people are reporting pulling back on their purchasing.

Are rarities still coming down? Maybe. This Wedgewood running foal sold for $916 - He wasn't in perfect shape but was very very good and the marks looked cleanable. Last year two in very similar shape sold for $1750 (April) and $1125 (July).

Chalkies are also in a lull (not complaining here - I'll grab all of them, haha). This FAM went for just $30. Arguably she is one of the least popular chalkies out there, but not especially common and that's very affordable.

On the flip side, this Azteca caused quite a stir selling for $560 when they normally average around $28. The dapple pattern is particularly stunning especially with the darker points and he has his box. But even so this one took a lot of us by surprise.

Another lovely vintage set - this Black Stallion and Alec set was Best Offer at $950. The whole set is absolutely mint and unopened. This is very hard to find complete and especially in like new shape. There was a set without the box that sold for $425 in October

Last week we saw the glossy Chevalier sell for $4000, this week a matte one hit the board with a best offer at $1200. This is an interesting case study where the color makes a huge difference in value. The sunburnt black is typically over $1000 and has been as high as $1800. Meanwhile the red roan, which is just as limited in number, sells for around $500. I am with the majority here and the sunburnt black is very much my favorite of the three! I received the red roan for my volunteering that year, which also, like the hobby at large, is my least favorite. The bay is somewhere in the middle.