So About Those Tariffs

Seems like another good day for a catch up on the latest!

The outside markets were in turmoil as the tariff fallout and confusion continues. Unfortunately for us toy collectors the China vs US battle has only escalated and we are now looking at 145% tariffs on chinese imports, which is going to affect Breyers. They have allegedly already sent an e-mail to dealers letting them know that prices are going up May 1st and although the warehouse is well stocked now, the next imports are going to get hit.

Even for things that are mostly made in the USA, like Stones, they may feel the effects on other products - are all the tools, paints, finishes, and even things like packing materials made in the USA? They could well see price increases in their own supply chain due to this that may drive up prices.

I'm currently sitting here wondering if I should rush to buy some of the current RRs that I was still hoping to get eventually. Do I think they're going to go from $50 now to $126 next month? No... I don't expect the full retail price to go up by 145% but I've seen estimates of other toys expected to go us 80-100% - so I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see them $80-$100 in the Breyerfest store, which was my original plan since I do enjoy the handpicking aspect.

Models from 2024 releases and earlier are still on sale at some places for $35ish and that definitely feels compelling in the current environment... if that stock sells out and they're back at $80 by Christmas, I will have regrets.

But the real question is, how well will new RRs sell if the price goes up to $80-$100+? If it becomes the new normal I think collectors will for the most part still grudgingly accept it. After all plenty of recently discontinued RRs sell on the secondary market for that price. It is still a worry though, if that will be sustainable. But the way the turmoil has been going things could yet be vastly different a few months from now.

Special runs are another story... will we see Breyerfest SRs at $200 each next year? Will web specials be $300+ by the end of the year? Most of the more limited models still go up to around those prices on the secondary market so there is some room there, but it might start to be a real squeeze. It reminds me of the early days of web specials like Riley - this was also during a time of economic crisis (he was released in 2008) and the price was, for the time, relatively high. Even with only 400 made he just sat and sat on the Breyer website. Eventually they decided to gloss half the run to help sell it out faster. Now they sell for over $1000!

It's going to be interesting to see if things start to go that way again.